With 2nd wave of covid 19 gradually receding all over the country, plenty of reports and articles are popping up in news channels and social media about a impending third wave of covid 19 which will mainly infect children .Although I am convinced that third wave will hit us(discussed in previous post), I don’t think that it will be predominantly affecting children.
Why? lets see-
1.Fully vaccinated adult population is very low in India ( less than 5%)and rising very slowly .If third wave hits us before most adults are vaccinated obviously it will infect primarily adults.
2. Before most adults are vaccinated ,child vaccination will start( trials are running now). As vaccine hesitancy is low for children it will run in better pace than adults.
3.Exponential rise of cases in children is not possible until school/ parks/ playgrounds are closed (or permitted with restricted movements). Till then children will get infection only from household and will infect only susceptible family members.
4.If we look at the countries that have witnessed 3 rd wave of covid 19 , we can see that like 1st and 2 nd wave it has predominantly affected adults with rise of cases below 18 years.
But, there is a catch. Some countries, (like Canada) which are already affected with 3rd wave, had doubling of cases in <18 yr age group, compared to second wave. In India only 2-4% of total covid cases( in first and second wave) are children. If we look at international trend, there is a possibility that we may see 7-8% of total cases(4% now) below 18 year age in third wave of covid.
To conclude, third wave of covid 19 will mainly affect adults; But we can see rise in cases in children.
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