Unfortunately YES.
Let’s recap, what happened after the first wave receded.
- Masks are thrown into the dustbin.
- We forgot social distancing and hand hygiene as soon as covid cases started decreasing.
- We started to gather in malls, markets, and on any occasion without wearing masks.
- Govt started celebrating that they have conquered corona and become reluctant.
- Mega political rallies and religious gatherings are being conducted all over India without maintaining social distancing norms.
Basically, we got a pool of 1.3 billion vulnerable population to covid 19 infection who had mostly forgotten about covid 19 (we were still having 10-12 k covid 19 cases per day in January/February 2021).
All it needed was a mutant variant of covid 19 that has high infectivity. Unlucky for us that delta variant hit us and spread through our country in no time with disastrous consequences.
I am sure we will repeat our mistakes. The only thing we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history. All it will need is a new covid variant.
The only things that can save us from 3rd wave are luck(no new covid variant strikes us)and mass VACCINATION. Until today less than 4 % population in India is fully vaccinated(2 doses) against covid. Considering the efficacy of available vaccines we need at least 75% to 80% of the population to get fully vaccinated as early as possible. Only then 3rd wave (or any further wave) can be prevented. With the rate of vaccination per day we will need another one year to do that. Unless vaccination is ramped up 3rd wave is inevitable.
Update- JANUARY 2023- more than 95% eligible population(12yr+) has received at least one dose; furthermore, 88% of the eligible population(12yr+) is fully vaccinated(2 doses). 3rd wave now seems unlikely. Cheers!
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